Prices for cereals will continue to decline: expert opinion
After rapid growth in cereal prices in July and August, prices dropped by 15%. At the same time in the III quarter of 2010, the prices of cereals will continue to follow the downward trend. The opinion expressed LigaBusinessInform analyst of investment company “BG Capital” Dmitry Ushenko.
The expert recalled: decrease forecast world cereal production in Canada, Europe and the Black Sea caused the price rally in global commodity exchanges. Price of wheat on CBOT (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in July soared by 67%, but in August adjusted to 15%. Following world trends, in July-August, the cost of grain on the Ukrainian market has grown by 22% -111%.
“Given the fairly high projected level of correlation of world carry-overs to consumption in the 2010/11 marketing year – 20,5% (for comparison, in 2007/08 this figure was 17.6% -18.2%) in the third quarter will be A new wave of lower cereal prices “, – said Dmitry Ushenko.
In general, the following marketing year price of grain, an analyst predicts will grow by 30% -35% compared to prices in 2009/10 mg.
However, the estimated “BG Capital”, cereal production in 2010/11 will amount to 41.9 mg million tonnes, exports compared with last year, reduced by one third – 15 million tons.
Recall, according to the latest forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, the grain harvest in Ukraine this year will amount to 40,5 million tons.
Source: BIZliga